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Treasury Yields Climb

Published September 19, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields rose early in the week as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in nine months. Yields continued to increase later in the week as the latest employment figures indicated a continuing slowdown of the labor market.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. At the meeting, policy makers agreed to lower the key federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points. The rate cut reduced the federal funds rate to between 4% to 4.25%, down from 4.25% to 4.5%. This marks the first rate cut since December 2024 as the U.S. experiences a weakening labor market and slower economic growth.

“The labor market is getting a little bit weaker, and so they thought it was appropriate to cut rates, but they are not going to cut rates fast, because they recognize that there is also an inflation problem out there,” said chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, David Kelly. “The fact that the Federal Reserve is taking its time, it is being balanced and measured in how it adjusts its rates, I think that that gives confidence to investors all around the world.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of September 15 at 4.07% and traded as high as 4.14% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.68% and traded as high as 4.75% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 for the week ended September 13, below analysts’ expectations of 240,000. Continuing unemployment claims totaled 1.92 million, a decrease of 7,000 claims from the prior week.

"The steady trend in claims continues at a rate that is way too low to signal a recession,” said chief economist at High Frequency Economics, Carl Weinberg. “It also undermines calls for more and bigger rate cuts, both at the Fed and in the markets."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 9/15 at 4.13%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.75%.